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For the past few weeks, Aleksandar Vučić has been filmed road tripping through the Serbian countryside in a Škoda. In video clips from his tour, he stops and meets his fellow Serbs. He eats “domestic” Serbian meals in modest rural homes. He has a drink with an old friend from military service in the Yugoslav People’s Army (JNA). In one hallucinatory clip, Vučić has a conversation with a head of cabbage. One video looks borrowed from AOC’s millennial communications handbook, particularly its section on forced relatability: sitting in the front seat of his car, Vučić tells the camera that he has “stage fright” about speaking at a campaign rally. Animals also figure prominently: Vučić pats livestock on the head and plays with village cats. In these carefully curated spots, Vučić displays an affability and disarming gentleness. It’s a picture of the man that is entirely at odds with the strongman we know, and world’s away from the image painted by Vučić’s domestic critics–many of whom have been protesting against him for nearly two years straight. With his “I’m a Normal Guy” tour through the Serbian hinterlands, Vučić is hoping to project an image of reliability and normalcy despite the unrest. It’s a message critical to Vučić’s campaign for the October 25th parliamentary elections–the most important vote since his party came to power 14 years ago.
The trigger for the past 23 months of protests was tragedy. On November 1, 2024, a train station canopy collapsed in Novi Sad, killing 16 people. Grief was transmuted into outrage, and the student-led protests that followed grew into a full-fledged movement. “The students”, as they’re known, later succeeded in transforming street protest into a viable electoral vehicle. The so-called “Student List” (SL) was created by student plenums, where 250 academics, doctors, actors, activists and athletes were selected to serve as a slate of candidates for this month’s election. At the top of that list is 56-year-old Ilija Srdanović, a cardiologist and professor at the Faculty of Medicine in Novi Sad. Srdanović has described himself as “a soldier, essentially, all my life”: he did his military service during the 1990s and has given speeches at student-led protests since the very beginning. He recently characterized the upcoming election as a question of “Serbia or the mafia”.
Vučić hopes to stay in power by swapping the presidency for the premiership. On September 27th, he resigned from his role as president and is now campaigning for prime minister. But for the first time since his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) assumed office 14 years ago, victory is not assured. According to some polls, Student List is now polling ahead of SNS. A recent survey by independent pollster CRTA had SL polling at 44.9%, while SNS received just 35.7%.
Even so, no one should bet their money on Vučić’s demise. Over and over again, I’ve bought the line parroted to me by Vučić’s opponents–”he’s finished”–and every time I’ve been wrong. Vučić always manages to outsmart us all (or at least me), and it’s very possible that he’ll do the same this time.
One reason it will be difficult to dislodge Vučić is that he has powerful friends.