Hazarding Predictions

Some guesses about 2026

Making predictions is dangerous, particularly with Trump in the White House. Very little can be pinned down these days. Still, I opted to take a swing and came up with a few predictions, which I used as a springboard to discuss a few things I have wanted to write about anyway. One is an update on the situation in Serbia, another concerns Kosovo, Somaliland, and the geopolitics of statehood recognition, and another is an EU enlargement forecast. The first part is open to all; the second part is for paid subscribers only.

Mogadishu, Somalia

Vučić will be sidelined internationally but will remain in power–for now

While Vučić has certainly been a “loser” of Trump’s return to office–so far, all the Serbian president’s fawning obsequiousness has failed to bring him closer to the White House–he is also a beneficiary of Trumpian chaos. In a different, more stable world, his government might, at this late stage in his reign, attract greater attention in Western capitals, which might in turn translate into interest in regime change. But with the world’s eyes fixed on Trump’s regular displays of “shock and awe” unilateralism, Serbia (along with the Balkans more generally, if I’m to be honest) seems completely irrelevant. This means that Vučić will probably make it through this year. In order to placate protesters, Vučić has said, multiple times, that Serbia will hold parliamentary elections in 2026. But parliamentary elections are currently scheduled for late 2027 and it’s more likely, in my opinion, that they will happen then. Presumably a presidential election will happen at the same time. If played right, it could be an opportune moment for Vučić’s ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) to claw back some tattered scraps of whatever remains of its popular support. In summer of 2027, Serbia will be hosting the Expo, which plays to one of Vučić’s strengths: presenting Serbia as a country that punches above its weight on the world stage. This could theoretically stir Titoist yugonostalgia in the older segment of the electorate that might still be compelled to cast a vote for SNS. Or at least, that will probably be Vučić’s calculation. I strongly doubt it will work. He’s too far gone, and, as I’ve written before, the end is nigh for him. Absent major changes on the world stage, which are certainly not impossible, I predict that Vučić will leave office in 2027. This means that 2026 will be an exercise in kicking the can down the road, frantic attempts to secure new supplies of energy and piecemeal sanctions waivers, and planning for the Expo.

However, there are others who believe otherwise, and who think that Serbia might be on the verge of transitioning into a more advanced stage of dictatorship. As it currently stands, Vučić cannot be elected president again. By law, his presidential mandate must end in 2027. But some say that Vučić will change the constitution to allow himself to remain president.