Is a US Attack on Iran Imminent? (with Giorgio Cafiero)
Uncertainties mount amid a major US military build-up
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The current US military build-up in the Middle East is the largest in more than two decades–not since the 2003 Invasion of Iraq has Washington deployed so many military assets to the region. Armchair analysts, Polymarket gamblers, and regional experts have been predicting a US attack on Iran since last month, but there is still ample confusion about whether one will be forthcoming, and if so, why: the objective of such an attack is still unclear. To help clarify the stakes, explore various scenarios, and understand the positions of governments in the region, I turned to Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO of Gulf State Analytics and an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University. (Follow Giorgio on X)